As of November 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?” at 90% YES with $54K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Lai Jui-lung currently holds a strong lead in polls and betting odds for the Kaohsiung mayoral race, making a win highly likely.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Jui-lung holds a commanding position in the contest to become Kaohsiung's next mayor, with two polls released on Nov. 2, 2026 showing him ahead of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) rival Ko Chih-en. A United Daily News survey put Lai at 40% support, a 7-percentage-point lead over Ko, while 49% of respondents expected Lai to win versus 21% for Ko. A separate Fengcan Media poll showed Lai ahead by 20.4 percentage points, though that survey was completed before the candidates' televised debate. The results reinforce Lai's standing as the frontrunner in the Nov. 28 local election. [Taiwan News, Nov 02]
The Oct. 30 debate, the first head-to-head televised encounter of the race, centered on redevelopment of the 205th Arsenal site and questions over political donations. Ko went on the offensive against the DPP's record, earning a "warrior" nickname in local coverage, but analysts noted her wider appeal remains untested beyond the party's base. The debate marked a procedural milestone ahead of the Nov. 28 vote, after which the campaigns enter their final stretch. The outcome of the Lai Jui-lung next Kaohsiung mayor election is viewed as a bellwether for the DPP's hold on its southern strongholds. [Focus Taiwan, Oct 31]
Kaohsiung carries outsized weight in national politics: the DPP has governed the city since 1998, apart from a brief KMT interlude, and retaining it alongside Tainan is seen as critical to the party's momentum heading toward 2028. A loss in either city would buck historical patterns and reshape the presidential field, according to analysis of the local elections. With balloting set for Nov. 28, the final weeks will test whether Lai's polling advantage converts into votes as the Lai Jui-lung next Kaohsiung mayor election draws to a close. [Stratnewsglobal, Nov 02]
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