As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?” at 6% YES with $610K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Advertisement The Gunners opened the 2026-27 Premier League season with a convincing 3-0 victory and have climbed to 52% favorites to win the title.
The Kalshi market pricing Liverpool at just 6% to win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) championship reflects a dramatic fall from grace for the Merseyside club, who lifted the title in 2024-25 under then-manager Arne Slot. According to ESPN's season mega-preview, Liverpool shockingly fired Slot just a year after his title triumph, and the club now faces the daunting task of replacing the output and influence of Mohamed Salah, whose departure has left a massive creative and scoring void [ESPN, Aug 19]. The market's 94% NO probability places Liverpool behind Arsenal (52%), Manchester City (21%), and Chelsea (12%) in the title odds, with the Gunners opening the season with a convincing 3-0 victory to solidify their status as reigning champions [Sports, Aug 24]. Liverpool's current record through the early matchweeks has them sitting mid-table, a stark contrast to their championship-winning form just two seasons ago.
The underlying data explains why the market is so bearish on Liverpool's chances. Squawka's analysis notes that injuries and a lack of consistency derailed large parts of their 2025-26 title defence, with the club finishing outside the top four as Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Aston Villa secured the Champions League spots [Squawka, May 25]. The team's pressing metrics are also concerning — ESPN's editor's picks highlighted that Liverpool's aggressive press number was the highest (worst) among title contenders, indicating a systemic issue in their defensive approach under the new coaching staff [ESPN, Aug 19]. With a 9% probability just a week before the season started, the market has already adjusted downward to 6% following a shaky opening performance, suggesting bettors see little path to contention against a deep Arsenal squad and a reloaded Manchester City under new management.
What's next for Liverpool is a critical stretch that will determine whether this 6% price represents value or a trap. The club's upcoming fixtures against top-six rivals will test whether their squad can compete at the required level, with the transfer window having closed without a marquee signing to replace Salah's production. Historical precedent offers some hope — Liverpool themselves overcame a 10-point deficit in 2019-20 to win the title, and Manchester City's 2022-23 comeback from a similar position shows early-season odds can shift dramatically [Goal, Aug 26]. However, the market's collective wisdom — reflected in the 94% NO probability — suggests that Liverpool's issues are structural rather than temporary. The next five matchweeks will be telling: if the Reds can string together consecutive wins and climb into the top four by early October, the 6% price could begin to creep upward. If not, this number may drift even lower as the title race crystallizes around Arsenal and Manchester City [Traded on Polymarket — $610K Volume
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