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Resolves: Dec 2026 5 months left Volume: $274K

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

NO
82c
YES
18c

Prediction markets put the probability at 19%: Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (19% YES).

Down from 42% to 18% since 2026-05-02 (-24pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $274K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 18c YES with $274K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 162 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 18% YES with $274K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.