Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Donald Trump says the US agreement with Iran will be signed "shortly", as US officials reveal details of the deal.

What’s Happening

U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf digitally signed a memorandum of understanding on Sunday, June 14, 2026, establishing a 60-day ceasefire and committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to senior U.S. administration officials. The MOU was executed five days ahead of schedule, with an in-person signing ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland with high-ranking representatives from both sides. Reuters senior defense correspondent Phil Stewart first reported the digital execution, and Trump stated the Strait of Hormuz would be "fully open by Friday's signing." [Times of Israel, Jun 15]

The 14-paragraph agreement stipulates that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon and establishes a $300 billion reconstruction and economic development fund, though the United States is not obligated to contribute. Both parties committed to "negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent," per BBC reporting on the disclosed terms. Hawks in Washington frame the framework as a battlefield pause converting into a durable settlement, while analysts at Axios flagged eight unresolved questions, including verification mechanisms on Iran's nuclear program and the scope of IDF positioning in Lebanon. A senior U.S. official confirmed the MOU is not conditioned on IDF withdrawal from Lebanon, leaving a key flashpoint unaddressed. [BBC, Jun 17]

Whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signs a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31 hinges on the Switzerland ceremony holding and regional escalation not derailing the timeline. A senior Iranian official warned that an Israeli air strike on Beirut's southern suburb on June 14, which killed three and injured 15, could derail the expected agreement, and Tehran has publicly cast doubt on precise timing. The structural determinants for resolution of the question of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signing a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31 are the durability of the Hormuz reopening, the absence of further Israeli strikes inside the ceasefire window, and Iranian parliamentary ratification of Ghalibaf's signature. Trump indicated additional signing would follow "shortly." [BBC, Jun 14]

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