AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 10c |
80%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 21c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO, entering between 77c and 83c, which signals smart money expects New People to fall short of a plurality. Their entries near the top of the NO range imply confidence in a United Russia victory and no meaningful hedge on the YES side. This concentrated NO positioning points to continued downward drift for the YES contract.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 +126% | Smart | NO | $13.3K | -3% | |
| 0x0845..6f | Retail | NO | $13.0K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,688 on $26.3K capital deployed (avg +25.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 19c | $6.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 16c | — | ✓ matched |