As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” at 35% YES with $1.5M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Karen Bass took first in the June primary at 34%, and as the incumbent she holds the edge, leaving Raman the underdog at 35% to win the runoff.
The nithya raman los angeles mayoral election race entered a sharper phase this week as the Democratic Socialists of America formally endorsed City Councilmember Nithya Raman over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. The endorsement, reported on September 3, 2026, arrived alongside news that Raman is set to lose her chairmanship of the City Council's homelessness committee as the contest intensifies. The two candidates held their first general-election runoff debate on August 19, 2026, in Van Nuys, framing a head-to-head vote that observers say will hinge on whether Raman can broaden the progressive coalition that carried her out of the primary. [NY Post, Sep 3]
The runoff exists because no candidate cleared the 50% threshold in the June 2026 primary, triggering a mandatory second round. Bass finished first with 34% of the vote, while Raman secured the second general-election spot with 29%, narrowly edging a third-party challenger. Raman had earlier advanced past reality-television figure Spencer Pratt to reach the top tier. The result set up a rematch of ideological currents within the city's Democratic base, with Bass defending a first-term record and Raman running to her left. [Covers, Aug 29]
The nithya raman los angeles mayoral election concludes on November 3, 2026, when voters decide who will lead America's second-largest city for the next four years. Analysts describe the contest as a case study in coalition politics, with Raman seeking to unite tenant-protection advocates, democratic socialists, and progressive constituencies into a governing majority. Bass, meanwhile, faces the historical difficulty of an incumbent forced into a runoff after a first-place finish under 40%. The final weeks of the nithya raman los angeles mayoral election are expected to center on homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety legislation. [LA Times, Sep 2]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 7/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 55c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 70c | 58% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 76c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 72c | 72% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 72% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (55–98c vs 65c). Gemini Flash leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 74c — market prices it at 65c. 9-point gap supports NO.
Smart money shows a clear skew toward YES, with all four wallets holding YES positions accumulated in the 20c-31c range, signaling confidence in Raman's chances. The NO entries at 54c-63c are likely hedges or contrarian bets, but their lower volume and higher entry points suggest less conviction. The clustering of YES entries below 31c implies informed traders see value above current market pricing, pointing to potential upward pressure on the YES price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x011f..22 | Smart | YES | $1.6K | +44% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $14.5K | +20% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $5.5K | +4% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.0K | +15% |
All tracked wallets are in profit on both sides, with YES entries (20c-31c) and NO entries (54c-63c) both below current prices of 35c and 65c respectively. This symmetric profitability suggests early positioning was well-timed, but the dominant YES side (100% of entries) indicates stronger conviction in the YES direction. Price support at 35c is reinforced by profitable YES holders who may hold for further upside rather than sell at breakeven.
Polymarket prices YES at 35c with $1.5M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 26c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35c | $1.5M |
| Our Model | 26c | — |