As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” at 58% YES with $2.2M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Karen Bass took first in the June primary at 34%, and as the incumbent she holds the edge, leaving Raman the underdog at 35% to win the runoff.
The nithya raman los angeles mayoral election race entered a sharper phase this week as the Democratic Socialists of America formally endorsed City Councilmember Nithya Raman over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. The endorsement, reported on September 3, 2026, arrived alongside news that Raman is set to lose her chairmanship of the City Council's homelessness committee as the contest intensifies. The two candidates held their first general-election runoff debate on August 19, 2026, in Van Nuys, framing a head-to-head vote that observers say will hinge on whether Raman can broaden the progressive coalition that carried her out of the primary. [NY Post, Sep 3]
The runoff exists because no candidate cleared the 50% threshold in the June 2026 primary, triggering a mandatory second round. Bass finished first with 34% of the vote, while Raman secured the second general-election spot with 29%, narrowly edging a third-party challenger. Raman had earlier advanced past reality-television figure Spencer Pratt to reach the top tier. The result set up a rematch of ideological currents within the city's Democratic base, with Bass defending a first-term record and Raman running to her left. [Covers, Aug 29]
The nithya raman los angeles mayoral election concludes on November 3, 2026, when voters decide who will lead America's second-largest city for the next four years. Analysts describe the contest as a case study in coalition politics, with Raman seeking to unite tenant-protection advocates, democratic socialists, and progressive constituencies into a governing majority. Bass, meanwhile, faces the historical difficulty of an incumbent forced into a runoff after a first-place finish under 40%. The final weeks of the nithya raman los angeles mayoral election are expected to center on homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety legislation. [LA Times, Sep 2]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 5/6 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 52c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 55c | 42% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 56c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 58c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 55c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 58c | 55% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (52–58c vs 42c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 56c — market prices it at 42c. 14-point gap supports NO.
Tracked wallets show dominant YES positioning, with early entries as low as 20c signaling conviction well before the market repriced. NO entries clustered at 54c-62c look like late countertrend attempts now trapped, suggesting smart money is aligned on Raman and the path of least resistance remains higher.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x011f..22 | Smart | YES | $2.6K | +110% | |
| 0xbacd..35 +212% | MM | YES | $17.0K | +6% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $9.6K | -22% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $4.0K | -34% |
All YES positions are in profit with entries from 20c to 47c against the current 58c price, while every NO entry between 54c and 62c is underwater. This one-sided P&L creates strong incentive for YES holders to hold or add, and for NO holders to cut losses, reinforcing upward price pressure toward the 58c level.
Polymarket prices YES at 58c with $2.2M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 44c. Significant 14-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 58c | $2.2M |
| Our Model | 44c | — |