AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 25c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money established its NO position early at 22c and has ridden it to a 53-cent unrealized gain, signaling high conviction that a qualifying diplomatic meeting will NOT occur — aligning with the structural status-quo-NO edge that dominates short-dated geopolitical markets. The absence of any tracked YES entry underscores one-directional positioning: no alpha wallet is fading the diplomatic-stalemate thesis. This entry pattern points toward YES (no-meeting) as the durable outcome heading into the deadline.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.0K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,787 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg +363.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 79c | $1.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 16c | — | ✓ matched |