Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?” at 76% YES with $122K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO). While the PQ remains in first place, the race is far from locked in.

What’s Happening

The Parti Québécois’s bid to win the most seats in the Quebec general election has been bolstered by a series of by-election victories between October 2025 and February 2026, yet recent polling indicates the race remains highly volatile. A Leger360 survey from June 17, 2026 shows the PQ still in first place overall and among francophone voters, but only 47% of decided voters say their choice is final, with a majority open to switching allegiances before the provincial vote. This fluidity is critical because the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which has plummeted in the polls over the past two years, and the Quebec Liberal Party remain within striking distance in several key ridings, even as PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon maintains a favourable personal approval trajectory. [Leger360, Jun 17]

The path to the Parti Québécois winning the most seats in the Quebec general election is complicated by the party’s low seat count from the 2022 election, where it captured only three seats, but its resurgence has been dramatic. Under St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ transformed from an afterthought into a clear alternative to the CAQ, winning four by-elections between October and February 2026, according to Policy Magazine. However, an April 16, 2026 Montreal Gazette poll showed the Quebec Liberals ahead of the PQ in overall voting intentions, though the PQ retained a 34% lead among francophones—a three-point drop since February—compared to 21% for the Liberals and 18% for the CAQ. This demographic split underscores that while the PQ is dominant with its base, the broader electorate remains fragmented, and the CAQ’s collapse does not automatically transfer seats to the sovereigntist party. [Policy Magazine, Aug 18]

Looking ahead, the procedural milestone that could define the outcome is the campaign period leading to the provincial election, with sovereignty and the promised referendum by 2030 serving as central wedge issues. St-Pierre Plamondon has stated no referendum will occur while Donald Trump remains in office, a caveat that may moderate sovereignty fears among swing voters but also energizes the PQ’s core. Elections Quebec is already hiring additional staff for the expected high turnout, and the CAQ’s leader, whose party has been in power since 2018, faces an existential test as her approval ratings lag. The Conversation notes that the 2026 election is a battle for francophone voters, with existential questions about Quebec’s sovereignty dominating the campaign. With the PQ’s lead narrowing in some polls and voter fluidity high, the 68% probability of the Parti Québécois winning the most seats in the Quebec general election reflects a favourable but not guaranteed position, as the Liberals and CAQ both have pathways to deny the PQ a plurality. [The Conversation, Jan 08]

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