As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?” at 94% YES with $631K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 86%: Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award. Currently, markets see this as likely (86% YES). Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2026 breakout could have him on track to win the first MVP Award of his career.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has surged to an 86% probability of winning the 2026 National League MVP Award, following a historic three-homer, six-RBI performance against the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 29. The 24-year-old now sits at 36 home runs and 32 stolen bases, closing in on a 40-40 season that has occurred only six times in MLB history. His slash line of .282/.377/.567 and a 158 wRC+ leads all National League hitters, while his MLB-best 24 FRV in center field gives him a defensive edge that separates him from other candidates. Crow-Armstrong's odds have swung dramatically from -390 to -1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook after the outburst, with Shohei Ohtani now trailing at +650 in what has become a two-man race [CBS Sports, Aug 29].
The race has shifted decisively since July 3, when Ohtani made his last pitching start for the Dodgers. Since that date, Crow-Armstrong holds the advantage in wRC+ (171 to 149), home runs (14 to 12), and OPS (1.014 to .948) over the two-time defending NL MVP. Ohtani, who has won the award in 2024 and 2025, entered the season as the heavy favorite but has seen his odds lengthen to +155 as of Aug. 24, before falling further to +650 after Crow-Armstrong's recent surge. The Cubs outfielder has also delivered dramatic moments, including a three-homer game that drew comparisons to an unlikely inspiration he cited postgame, further cementing his narrative in the race [ESPN, Aug 24].
With roughly five weeks remaining in the regular season, Crow-Armstrong's path to the award hinges on maintaining his current pace while the Cubs push for postseason positioning. His 158 wRC+ ranks second only to Houston's Yordan Alvarez across all of MLB, and he leads the league in WAR per MLB's latest poll. The historical precedent favors him: no NL center fielder has won the MVP since Mike Trout in 2019, and a 40-40 season would place him in rarefied air alongside only six previous players. Ohtani remains the primary threat, particularly if he returns to pitching form down the stretch, but Crow-Armstrong's combination of elite defense, power, and speed has made him the overwhelming favorite in sportsbook odds and expert polls alike [MLB, Aug 26].
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
See the markets with a verdict →