As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?” at 73% YES with $122K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Predict.fun token launch odds rose from 66% to 80% over the weekend, putting the market at 73% YES for a launch by November 15, 2026.
The probability that Predict.fun will launch a token by November 15, 2026, climbed sharply over the weekend, rising from 66% early Sunday to 80% late Sunday, a 14-point swing, according to market tracking data. The move came as traders reassessed the timeline for the platform's governance token, with separate markets showing a 22% chance of a launch before October 31 and a 97% probability of a launch before November 30. The question of whether Predict.fun will launch a token by November 15 has become one of the more closely watched crypto events on the calendar, with the current probability sitting at 73% YES against 27% NO. [Rg, Nov 02]
The launch timeline has been complicated by the platform's airdrop structure. Participants face a choice between Option A, which pays out 35% immediately, and Option B, which pays 100% after one year, with a submission deadline of November 26, 2026, at 09:00 UTC. The next weekly cut-off for early payout batches is November 5 at 09:00 UTC, and the form can be submitted only once, with no changes permitted after submission. The 65% forfeited under Option A cannot be reclaimed by the token project, according to the announcement. [Cryptoticker, Nov 01]
Traders are now weighing whether the token generation event will precede the November 15 deadline or slip toward the November 26 airdrop submission cutoff. The gap between the 73% current probability and the 97% implied for a launch before November 30 reflects uncertainty over the exact timing rather than the likelihood of a launch itself. Whether Predict.fun will launch a token by November 15 remains the key binary, with the market's 27% NO side pricing in the possibility of a delay into late November. [Pluang, Oct 26]
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
See the markets with a verdict →