AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 80-91c and rode it to 6c — a conviction fade of the Pahlavi-returns thesis, not a late piling-on at cheap prices. The absence of any YES accumulation even at 6c signals wallets see no asymmetric upside; they treat sub-10c as fair value for a near-zero-probability event, capping any squeeze potential into June 30.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $10.8K | +5% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | MM | NO | $7.7K | +12% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $7.2K | +4% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $6.1K | +9% | |
| 0x253d..07 | MM | NO | $3.1K | +6% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $1.3K | +18% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,123 on $36.2K capital deployed (avg +14.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $6.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 6c | — | ✓ matched |