Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Russia invade another country in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

What’s Happening

On April 25, 2026, Russia launched one of its largest aerial strikes on Ukraine since the invasion began, killing at least four people and injuring 32 in Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Bila Tserkva, according to Ukrainian officials. The attack, involving ballistic missiles and dozens of drones, came as Ukraine pushed for a face-to-face summit between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to inject momentum into stalled U.S.-led peace efforts. Despite these hostilities, Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) warned on April 22 that Russia could be ready to start a regional conflict with NATO within a year after the end of fighting in Ukraine, though it assessed that a conventional war against the alliance remains “virtually out of the question” as long as Russian forces are engaged in Ukraine. [Kyiv Independent, Apr 25] [Defense News, Apr 22]

The probability that Russia will invade another country in 2026 remains low at 10%, according to current market data, reflecting the assessment that Moscow’s military is overstretched. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive in Ukraine has stalled with minimal territorial gains and unsustainable casualty rates, with Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov likely attempting to obscure the lack of progress. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister has argued that a Zelenskyy-Putin summit could inject new momentum into peace talks, though Russia has not publicly agreed to such a meeting. Analysts caution that while a direct invasion of a NATO member is unlikely this year, the risk that Russia will invade another country in 2026—such as a non-NATO neighbor like Moldova or Georgia—cannot be dismissed if Ukraine’s defenses collapse or if Moscow perceives a window of opportunity. [Military.com, Apr 22] [Daily Kos, Apr 24]

The structural factor that will determine whether Russia will invade another country in 2026 is the outcome of the war in Ukraine. The Dutch MIVD report explicitly states that as long as Ukrainian defenses hold, a conventional Russian attack on NATO is “virtually out of the question,” and the same logic applies to other neighboring states. However, if peace talks collapse or Ukraine’s military position deteriorates significantly, Moscow could redirect forces toward a new target. The April 25 mass strike suggests Russia is still prioritizing attrition in Ukraine rather than preparing for a second front. For now, the consensus among Western intelligence agencies is that Russia lacks the capacity to launch a major invasion of another country in 2026, though the risk would rise sharply if the Ukraine conflict ends in a Russian victory or a frozen conflict that frees up troops. [Traded on Polymarket — $105K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $105K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.