Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Russia invade another country in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2026.
Down from 12% to 10% since 2026-04-14 (-2pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $259K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $259K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.