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Geopolitics
Resolves: Jan 2027 3 months left Volume: $461K

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

NO
94c
YES
6c

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Russia invade another country in 2026?” at 6% YES with $461K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Russia invade another country in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Down from 10% to 6% since 2026-06-15 (-4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $461K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $461K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.