Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $916K in total trading volume.

94c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Currently at 6%

Traded on Polymarket — $916K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $916K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 162 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

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As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $916K in total volume.

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.