Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 89%: Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May. Currently, markets see this as likely (89% YES). HSBC lifts S&P 500 year-end target on earnings optimism.

What’s Happening

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,501.39 on May 14, 2026, marking the first time the benchmark index has surpassed the 7,500 threshold, according to Forbes. This milestone follows a sustained rally driven by artificial intelligence investment optimism and resilient corporate earnings, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices persist. The index has now posted six consecutive weekly gains, with the Nasdaq also hitting new all-time highs during the same period, supported by strong tech sector performance and a robust jobs report released on May 8. The current trajectory places the S&P 500 (SPY) on a path that makes a move to the $750 level in May a plausible near-term scenario, given the index’s rapid ascent from 7,000 to 7,500 in under three weeks. [Forbes, May 14]

On May 11, 2026, HSBC raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 from 7,500, citing resilient earnings growth and strong corporate fundamentals, as reported by Reuters and Kitco. The brokerage’s upgrade reflects expectations that AI-driven productivity gains and robust consumer spending will continue to fuel earnings, offsetting concerns that high oil prices—linked to the ongoing Iran conflict—could reignite inflation. The S&P 500 (SPY) hitting $750 in May would require the index to rise approximately 7% from current levels, a move that aligns with HSBC’s revised outlook but would mark an acceleration of the already rapid rally. Historical data shows that the last time the S&P 500 gained more than 5% in a single month was in November 2023, when it rose 8.9% following a dovish Federal Reserve pivot. [Reuters, May 11]

Key economic indicators in the coming weeks will determine whether the S&P 500 (SPY) can sustain its momentum to reach $750 in May. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due on May 13, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on May 14 will be closely watched for signs that inflation is reaccelerating, particularly given the recent spike in energy costs. The 10-year Treasury yield has remained elevated near 4.5%, reflecting market concerns about sticky inflation, while the yield curve remains inverted—a traditional recession signal that has persisted for over two years. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on June 17-18 will be pivotal; any hawkish commentary could dampen risk appetite. For the S&P 500 (SPY) to hit $750 in May, the index would need to average daily gains of roughly 0.3% over the remaining trading sessions, a pace that has been exceeded in 12 of the last 20 trading days. [Investopedia, May 8]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 89c YES.