AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
88%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
87%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
All three tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO at 94c-95c, signaling consensus that Hilton will not win the 2026 California governor race. Their entries near the price ceiling indicate they see the outcome as near-certain and are willing to lock up capital for a small yield rather than chase any YES value. This smart-money alignment reinforces the bearish direction for Hilton's candidacy.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x47ab..df | MM | NO | $9.5K | +1% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $4.2K | 0% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $2.9K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,035 on $16.6K capital deployed (avg +6.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $4.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |