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Politics
Resolves: Nov 2026 2 months left Volume: $2.7M

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

NO
95c
YES
5c

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Down from 8% to 5% since 2026-05-21 (-3pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.7M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.7M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 5c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 5/5 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT
HOLD

5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 7c of upside.

— TARGET YIELD

5 of 5 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO75c—
AI DeepSeek QuantNO96c
82%
AI Grok ContrarianNO82c
55%
AI Gemini FlashNO90c
85%

5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 95c. 7-point gap supports YES.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 94c–95c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x47ab..dfMMNO$9.5K+1%
0xcaab..ddRetailNO$1.4K+0%
See all 87 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 94c–95c. At current price 5c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 5c YES — $2.7M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $2.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket5c$2.7M
Our Model12c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $2.7M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 12c YES. 5 models agree on direction.