As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?” at 37% YES with $74K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 2.5% on October 28, 2026, and current odds favor no further 25 bps hike in December at 63%.
The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on October 28, 2026, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%, marking the first increase since the policy rate was held at 2.25% for seven consecutive announcements. Governing Council cited elevated energy and input costs as risks that could broaden inflation, noting that further increases may be needed as trade and geopolitical uncertainties evolve. The move followed September guidance in which markets had already priced a 65% probability of a 25-bps hike by year-end, up from 60% before that announcement. [Seeking Alpha, Oct 28]
The decision matters because headline inflation has hovered near 3%, while higher energy prices and tariffs add upward pressure, complicating the case for rate cuts. Second-quarter GDP growth came in at an annualized 3.3%, ahead of the Bank's own 2.5% projection, though the labour market has cooled, with employment down 42,000 in August and the unemployment rate at 6.4%. Canada's prime rate stood at 4.45% as of September, and the question now is whether the Bank of Canada will increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement, extending the tightening cycle into year-end. [Ratehub, Sep 04]
Attention now shifts to the December announcement, where policymakers will weigh the October hike against cooling employment and persistent trade conflict. The Bank's October statement explicitly warned that further rate increases may be needed, language that keeps a December move on the table even as growth data remain mixed. Whether the Bank of Canada will increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement depends on incoming inflation and labour figures, with two-year Canadian bond yields and the Loonie likely to react to any shift in guidance. [TD Economics, Sep 02]
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