Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?

As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?” at 28% YES with $70K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). Cyril Widdershoven, a senior advisor at Blue Water Strategy, told The Media Line that as of Aug.

What’s Happening

The question of whether the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31 has gained urgency as cross-border violence escalates. Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced a sea and air blockade on Saudi Arabia and conducted drone and missile attacks against sites inside the kingdom, the first such strikes since 2023, while Saudi Arabia has launched a maritime coalition and conducted its own air strikes, its first since 2022. The Houthis have also captured several Red Sea coastal areas, leaving control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — which carries about 7% of global oil — disputed. [Commons Library, May 11]

Speculation about a Saudi ground operation has circulated since mid-2026. Cyril Widdershoven, a senior advisor at Blue Water Strategy, told The Media Line that as of August 2, 2026, there was no conclusive evidence that Saudi regular forces had entered Houthi-controlled Yemen in significant numbers or begun a major ground invasion, with available evidence pointing to contingency planning rather than imminent action. By September, the Houthis had captured Mocha port and attacked several Saudi cities, wounding about 70 people, including women and children, prompting the first committee meeting under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Istanbul on August 31 with the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. [Al Jazeera, Sep 12]

The economic and security toll is mounting. Saudi airports and infrastructure remain under threat, and major events have been disrupted: Riyadh Fashion Week was postponed until 2027, the PIF Saudi International golf tournament was postponed, Soundstorm was cancelled for 2026, and the Six Kings Slam tennis tournament was moved to December 27–30, 2026. Analysts at ISW assessed in April that the Houthis are unlikely to attack Gulf energy infrastructure or Red Sea shipping, as doing so would jeopardize their domestic position and their relationship with Saudi Arabia, including a favorable UN-brokered ceasefire from 2022. Whether the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31 therefore hinges on whether cross-border strikes escalate into ground incursions. [Condé Nast Traveller ME, Sep 24]

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