Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $1.3M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

94c

YES

Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will the iranian regime fall by may 31?.

Currently at 6%

Traded on Polymarket — $1.3M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 6c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 5 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.2x conviction. Backed by $1.3M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered NO at 94c–95c.

— TARGET YIELD

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $77K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 94c–95c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$50.0K	+0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 94c (+0%), $50.0K on NO Track Record 1y on platform · 1812 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1812) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$12.8K	-6%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 6c (-6%), $12.8K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$6.9K	+0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 94c (+0%), $6.9K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$4.5K	-1%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 94c (-1%), $4.5K on NO Track Record 21d on platform · 1066 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	NO	$3.2K	+0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 94c → now 94c (+0%), $3.2K on NO Track Record 5d on platform · 274 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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75% of NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 6c, NO wallets at 94c–95c. At current price 6c, all YES buyers are underwater while 75% of NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

75% in profit

Polymarket: 6c YES — $1.3M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $1.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 6c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	6c	$1.3M
Our Model	6c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $1.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31??

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.