Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?” at 16% YES with $59K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? ; No.

What’s Happening

The probability that the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard will debut at a score of at least 1495 stood at 16% YES against 84% NO, according to market pricing dated Nov 3, 2026. The threshold sits between two adjacent contracts: a separate market asking whether the next Gemini Pro model debuts at 1500 or higher priced YES at 11% on $68k volume, while a lower bar of 1480 priced YES at 15% on $72k volume. The narrow spread between the 1480 and 1500 contracts implies traders assign most of the probability mass to a debut score clustered in the 1480–1500 band, leaving the 1495 line as a marginal cutoff. [Polydune, Nov 03]

Resolution mechanics matter for positioning. The contract resolves YES only if the qualifying model holds at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance on the Arena.AI text leaderboard, meaning a strong debut that fades on day two would settle NO. Any newly added model labeled "Pro" qualifies — including designations such as gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview — while Flash-labeled variants are excluded. The prior Gemini 2.5 Pro release topped the leaderboard at launch, a precedent that anchors expectations for the next Pro-tier debut even as the 1495 bar sits above that historical reference point. [Prdict, Oct 28]

What happens next hinges on Google's release cadence and leaderboard volatility. A debut above 1495 would require the next Pro model to clear both the 1480 and 1500 contract midpoints, a threshold the market currently treats as a tail outcome at roughly one-in-six odds. Traders are watching for confirmation of the model's label and first-day score, since the one-day settlement window compresses the reaction period and amplifies sensitivity to any post-launch score revision. Volume across the adjacent contracts — $68k to $72k — indicates active two-sided interest in calibrating the debut range rather than a one-sided directional bet. [Polydune, Nov 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $59K Volume