AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 66c |
32%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 82c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 34c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 60c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 39c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Only 1 tracked wallet, sitting on the NO side at 9c — a deep contrarian fade of the May 10 slip thesis when the market priced near-certainty of delay. Smart money positioning is minimal and contrarian, signaling no conviction echo behind the 88c YES consensus; the absence of tracked YES entries means crowd pricing is doing the work, not alpha flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $3.1K | +46% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,088 on $3.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $733.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 39c | — | × missed |