Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO).

What’s Happening

Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain in flux following a series of conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran. On April 22, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump told the New York Post that renewed talks could resume as soon as Friday, April 24, citing Pakistani mediation efforts. However, by April 25, an Iranian official stated that no meeting with U.S. negotiators was planned in Pakistan, even as Trump envoys were reportedly due to head to Islamabad. The same day, Trump cancelled the planned talks, citing cost and time concerns, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called his visit to Pakistan "very fruitful." These rapid reversals have left the timeline for the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10 highly uncertain, as both sides continue to trade public statements without a confirmed date. [Ynetnews, Apr 22] [CNBC, Apr 25]

The diplomatic back-and-forth occurs against a backdrop of heightened military and economic pressure. On April 27, 2026, Trump planned to meet with top national security officials to discuss a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Meanwhile, Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, discussing "the war and the aggression" by the United States and Israel. Analysts cited by CNN note that the chances of a breakthrough remain slim unless Washington shifts its stance on the ongoing conflict. The cancellation of talks on April 25 further dampened peace hopes, as reported by Marine News Magazine, with a diplomatic source in Islamabad claiming Tehran would not accept "maximalist" U.S. demands. These developments directly affect the probability of the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10, as the window for a formal sit-down narrows amid mutual distrust. [CNN, Apr 27] [Marine News Magazine, Apr 25]

The structural factor that will determine whether the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10 is the willingness of both sides to compromise on core issues. Iran has signaled through Araghchi's meetings in Pakistan and Russia that it seeks a negotiated end to hostilities, but insists on preconditions that Washington has so far rejected. Trump’s cancellation of talks, combined with his administration's "maximalist" demands, suggests that any future meeting will require a significant shift in U.S. policy—or a new crisis that forces both parties back to the table. The April 27 White House meeting on the Strait of Hormuz proposal could serve as a pivot point, but without a confirmed date or venue, the probability of a meeting before May 10 remains in doubt. [CNBC, Apr 24] [CNN, Apr 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $188K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 62c YES with $188K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.