AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 96c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.6K | -5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$65 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +4.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $222.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |