Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 13% YES on Polymarket with $202K in total trading volume.

87c

YES

13c

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES).

Down from 29% to 13% since 2026-04-27 (-16pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $202K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 13c YES with $202K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 13% YES with $202K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.