Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 29% YES on Polymarket with $530K in total trading volume.

71c

YES

29c

Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES).

Down from 54% to 29% since 2026-05-02 (-25pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $530K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 29c YES with $530K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 29% YES with $530K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.