Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 33%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (33% YES, 67% NO). Fed to hold rates this year, cut calls fade as war inflation persists, economists say: Reuters poll.

What’s Happening

A Reuters poll published June 9, 2026 found a clear consensus that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its benchmark rate for the remainder of the year, with 72 of 102 economists forecasting the federal funds target range will stay at 3.50%-3.75% through December. The shift marks the first time this year that a majority view has aligned on a full-year pause, as war-driven inflation has proven stickier than central bank models anticipated. Headline CPI has run at roughly double the Fed's 2% target, narrowing the path for any near-term easing and reinforcing the question of whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026 — the precise level implied by a year-long hold. [Reuters, Jun 9]

Goldman Sachs on June 8, 2026 pushed its first rate-cut call out to June 2027, citing a stronger-than-expected payrolls print and resilient consumer activity. The brokerage previously penciled in 25-basis-point cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, but now expects reductions only in June and December 2027. Goldman strategists noted the resilient labor data has "lowered the bar for a rate hike," a notable hawkish tilt that aligns with comments from several Fed officials reviving the prospect of additional tightening. The repricing implies the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026 remains the modal outcome, though the distribution has shifted toward upside risk on the policy rate. [Kitco, Jun 8]

Asset markets are repricing the higher-for-longer regime. Gold fell to a fresh six-month low on June 11, 2026, down 6.3% on the week, as investors unwound positions tied to expected easing. CNBC reported June 10 that rate hikes are back on the table, with Fed officials publicly raising the possibility of year-end tightening if inflation prints fail to moderate. The next inflection points are the July FOMC meeting, summer CPI releases, and updated Summary of Economic Projections, any of which could shift the target range higher and resolve the 3.75% scenario decisively. [CNBC, Jun 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $522K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 33c YES with $522K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.