Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
NO
80c
YES
20c
As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?” at 20% YES with $431K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). Policymakers at Norges Bank will meet on 18th June to decide monetary policy, with markets divided over the likely outcome.
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.
No verdict on this market
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live.
When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.