Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Measles returned to Texas in February.

What’s Happening

The U.S. has recorded more than 2,318 confirmed measles cases as of early April 2026, already surpassing the total for all of 2025, according to the BBC. This marks the highest annual count in 35 years, with the current outbreak centered primarily around South Carolina, though Texas has reported 181 cases this year, mostly near El Paso. The rapid acceleration—from over 1,000 cases by late February to more than 1,800 by the end of April—has placed the question of whether there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 into sharp focus, as the current trajectory suggests the threshold is attainable but not guaranteed. [BBC, Apr 06]

The resurgence is not isolated to the U.S., as Bangladesh has reported more than 7,500 suspected measles cases and at least 100 deaths between March 15 and April 4, prompting a nationwide vaccine push. In the U.S., the CDC has confirmed cases in at least four Texas counties, including a new Travis County case reported by Austin Public Health on May 8, 2026. The U.S. case count has grown by roughly 500 cases per month since February, and if that pace holds through December, the total would approach 6,500 cases—still below the 7,500 mark but within striking distance if transmission accelerates during typical late-summer and fall peaks. [Statesman, May 08]

Whether there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 depends on several factors, including vaccination rates, outbreak containment in South Carolina, and potential spread into undervaccinated communities. The CDC reported 1,800 cases through April 30, meaning the U.S. would need to average roughly 950 new cases per month for the remaining eight months to hit the threshold—nearly double the current monthly rate. However, the 2025 outbreak in Texas alone produced more than 800 cases, and with the virus now circulating in multiple states, health officials are monitoring whether the current pace accelerates. The next CDC data release, expected in mid-May, will provide the first clear signal of whether the case count is trending toward the 7,500 mark or plateauing. [UPI, Apr 06]

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