As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?” at 88% YES with $50K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Toy Story 5 is tracking toward a $160 million domestic opening weekend, which would likely rank third-best in 2026 given current box office trends.
Disney/Pixar's Toy Story 5 opened to an estimated $160 million domestically over the June 19-21, 2026 weekend, the largest debut of the year to date and the second-biggest domestic animated opening ever, according to studio estimates. The figure surpasses The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's $131.7 million three-day gross and ranks behind only Pixar's own animated record holder. Internationally, the film added $152 million for a $312 million global bow, with strong market shares across Australia, Singapore, Thailand and New Zealand. The result is central to the question of whether Toy Story 5 will have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026, a position it currently holds among the year's releases. [Deadline, Jun 21]
The opening also set a franchise record, with each successive Toy Story installment having posted a bigger debut than its predecessor. The performance matters because the domestic opening ranking for 2026 remains fluid: Spider-Man: Brand New Day later rewrote the record books with a $360 million debut over the July 31-August 2 weekend, the biggest opening weekend in history, while The Odyssey also entered the upper tier. Those results pushed Toy Story 5 down the annual leaderboard, leaving its hold on the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026 dependent on how the remaining slate performs. [Rotten Tomatoes, Aug 03]
By early August, Toy Story 5 had settled into holdover status, with Gold Derby projecting a $6 million fifth-weekend gross and a third-place finish behind Spider-Man and The Odyssey. The film remains the top-grossing entry in the franchise, a distinction every Toy Story release has achieved during its run. Whether it ultimately secures the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026 hinges on upcoming wide releases and their debut totals relative to the $160 million benchmark. [Gold Derby, Aug 03]
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