AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 84c when YES was already discounted, signaling conviction that Trump would not concede Iranian enrichment by June 30 — a structural read on US negotiating posture rather than a tactical fade. The absence of any YES-side smart money and the wallet's willingness to pay 84c for NO implies the 14c YES is a residual tail bet, not a contested thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $5.3K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$589 on $5.3K capital deployed (avg +11.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $2.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |