Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
NO
86c
YES
14c
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).
Currently at 14%
Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($63K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 14c YES.
6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (70–98c vs 86c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 86c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
1 Active Wallets on This Market
Smart money entered NO at 84c when YES was already discounted, signaling conviction that Trump would not concede Iranian enrichment by June 30 — a structural read on US negotiating posture rather than a tactical fade. The absence of any YES-side smart money and the wallet's willingness to pay 84c for NO implies the 14c YES is a residual tail bet, not a contested thesis.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xbacd..35
MM
NO
$1.1K
+2%
This Market
Entered at 84c → now 86c (+2%), $1.1K on NO
Activity · 1 event · May 28
DatePositionAmountTotal
May 28BUYNO84+$1,104$1,104
Realized—
Unrealized+$22
Total Profit+$22
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1858) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
The single tracked wallet sits 100% in profit on NO at an 84c entry, with current 14c YES pricing them ~70 points in the green. No YES exposure exists among tracked smart money, removing any profitable defense of the upside and leaving price drift biased toward NO equilibrium near zero.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 14c YES — $63K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $63K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
What are the current odds for Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $63K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 14c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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