AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 61c, signaling early conviction that Trump would not grant April sanction relief. With price now at 6c, smart money positioning was directionally correct and the trade is near terminal value. No fresh signal for reversal — entry pattern reinforces NO resolution thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $1.1K | +53% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$694 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg +63.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $381.9K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |