Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 8% YES on Polymarket with $102K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

92c

YES

Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz in april?.

Currently at 8%

Traded on Polymarket — $102K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $102K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 93c

Smart money entered NO at 75c–85c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 75c–85c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xeec5..fe ★	Retail	NO	$4.1K	+8%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 85c → now 92c (+8%), $4.1K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1658 trades · 100% win rate · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1658 trades).
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$1.0K	+23%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 92c (+23%), $1.0K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 75c–85c. At current price 8c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 46 Cents

Significant 46-cent gap: Polymarket at 8c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 8c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	8c	$102K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	8c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $102K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April??

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.