AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets positioned exclusively NO at 82-86c, signaling high-conviction rejection of any Trump-Iran transit fee deal in April. No YES exposure from smart money indicates this is treated as near-impossible tail risk, not a contested thesis. Entry discipline at premium prices reflects structural conviction rather than opportunistic fade.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe ★ | Retail | NO | $3.8K | +9% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 | Retail | NO | $1.6K | +14% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$987 on $5.4K capital deployed (avg +18.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $717.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |