Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
NO
92c
YES
8c
Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).
Currently at 8%
Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.
6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 92c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 92c. 2-point gap supports YES.
1 Active Wallets on This Market
Smart money loaded NO at 94c — a near-certainty conviction trade that Trump will not concede transit fees by June 30, consistent with the structural Iran NO thesis pattern. The absence of any YES tracked positioning combined with a single-sided 94c NO entry signals smart money treats this as a status-quo lock, not a contested binary, pointing toward continued drift to zero.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xbacd..35
MM
NO
$9.9K
-1%
This Market
Entered at 94c → now 92c (-1%), $9.9K on NO
Activity · 2 events · May 27 → May 28
DatePositionAmountTotal
May 27BUYNO85+$78$78
May 28BUYNO94+$9,941$10,027
Realized—
Unrealized−$130
Total Profit−$130
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
The lone tracked wallet sits on the NO side at a 94c average entry against an 8c YES price, meaning NO holders are essentially fully realized — every cent of downside on YES translates to locked-in profit on the NO leg. With 0% of YES in profit and NO entries already deep in the money, there is no organic bid from underwater longs to defend the 8c floor.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 46 Cents
Significant 46-cent gap: Polymarket at 8c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 10c.
What are the current odds for Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $51K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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