AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 94c, signaling early conviction that Trump would not concede transit fees to Iran — a structurally bearish read on US-Iran diplomatic accommodation. The entry near certainty rather than mid-range suggests this was treated as a high-probability fade of the YES tail, not a contested directional bet. Continued NO dominance at 8c implies no smart-money rotation toward YES even at deep discount.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $11.7K | -4% | |
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $5.2K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,263 on $16.9K capital deployed (avg +7.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $3.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |