AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money conviction is one-sided: the single tracked wallet entered NO at 74c and has been validated as price collapsed 60 cents toward resolution. With zero YES entries from tracked wallets and unanimous NO profitability, the signal points to continued decay toward 0, consistent with the structural Iran-NO thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 +53% | MM | NO | $2.7K | +11% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$839 on $2.7K capital deployed (avg +30.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $338.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |