AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 64c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 70c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 54c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 10c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $2.5K | -30% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$22,890 on $2.5K capital deployed (avg +900.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $723.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 54c | — | ✓ matched |