AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 3c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 18c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively NO at 87c, signaling early conviction that Trump would not declare war on Iran by April 30 — a thesis now nearly fully priced. The absence of any tracked YES entries reinforces directional consensus: tracked wallets see negligible tail risk of escalation in the remaining window.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe ★ | Retail | NO | $1.3K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$201 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg +15.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $614.0K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |