Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). in Iran would expand beyond escorting vessels in Strait of Hormuz, Trump says.
On May 11, 2026, US President Donald Trump told Fox News he was actively weighing whether to restart Project Freedom, the short-lived American operation to escort commercial vessels through the Iran-blocked Strait of Hormuz. Trump said any renewed mission would "expand beyond escorting vessels," signaling a broader military posture, and characterized the US-Iran ceasefire as on "life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest counter-proposal as "totally unacceptable." The remarks marked the most direct public escalation since Washington paused the operation in early May to test diplomatic openings with Iranian negotiators. [Ynetnews, May 11]
The question of whether Trump will restart project freedom by may 31 hinges on stalled negotiations and competing diplomatic pressures. On May 9, Trump told reporters the United States would launch what he branded "Project Freedom Plus" if peace talks with Iran fail, while confirming Pakistan had privately urged Washington not to resume the Hormuz operation. Trump's job-approval rating on Iran policy has hovered between 44% and 46% across major trackers since the March escalation, with Republican voters favoring a harder posture and independents split on whether a renewed naval mission would deter or provoke Tehran. [Jpost, May 9]
The procedural window is narrow. Trump has set no public deadline, but the May 31 cutoff aligns with the Memorial Day congressional recess and a Pentagon force-posture review briefed to lawmakers earlier this month. Whether Trump moves to restart project freedom by may 31 depends on whether Tehran tables a revised proposal in the coming days, and on closed-door consultations with Gulf partners and shipping insurers. Hormuz tanker traffic has reportedly dropped sharply since the April pause, intensifying pressure from energy traders and allied governments to either reopen the corridor under US escort or secure a written Iranian commitment to free transit. [Politico, May 11]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($92K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 40c YES.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moOddsShift runs mathematical + AI models and tracks 166 smart money wallets. Get BUY/SELL verdicts, entry targets, wallet positions, and P&L data.
Explore Market Radar →These Politics markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis: