How did 'Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (7 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.2M

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Resolved · JUN 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 7 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
Claude Analysis	NO	4c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	10c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money entered NO at a heavy premium (69c-85c), signaling high conviction the restart would not happen well before the market repriced. The absence of any YES positioning from tracked wallets is the louder signal: informed capital saw no asymmetric upside even at higher YES prices. Direction read: NO resolution expected, with 6c reflecting residual tail risk rather than genuine probability.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$6.1K	+36%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+36%), $6.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYNO69+$4,491$4,491 Realized— Unrealized+$1,627 Total Profit+$1,627 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1530) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$3.7K	+7%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 50c (+7%), $3.7K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 13 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO50+$404$404 May 15SELLNO61−$61$427 May 26BUYNO85+$3,291$3,888 May 26SELLNO28−$176$1,080 Realized−$324 Unrealized+$584 Total Profit+$260 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (956) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$3.1K	+28%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+28%), $3.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYNO74+$2,452$2,452 Realized— Unrealized+$693 Total Profit+$693 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1886) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	NO	$1.7K	+11%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 85c → now 50c (+11%), $1.7K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYNO85+$1,505$1,505 Realized— Unrealized+$168 Total Profit+$168 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1692) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$1.0K	+16%
This Market Entered at 80c → now 50c (+16%), $1.0K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 13 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO61+$61$61 May 26BUYNO81+$1,166$1,247 May 26SELLNO88−$387$966 Realized+$36 Unrealized+$162 Total Profit+$198 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1536) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,365 on $15.7K capital deployed (avg +34.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$1.2M	0c
AI Consensus	7c	—	✓ matched

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