Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $164K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 10c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 72c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 80% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 90c | 90% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–98c vs 90c). Kimi Macro leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 90c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is positioned exclusively short the early-election scenario, holding NO from 83c into a market now pricing YES at 10c — a well-timed, high-conviction fade. The absence of any YES entries signals traders see no credible path to Turkey scheduling early presidential elections in 2026, favoring status-quo continuation. Directional read: firmly NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $4.2K | +7% |
The lone tracked wallet is entirely on the NO side, entered at 83c, and is 100% in profit as YES sits at just 10c. There is zero profitable YES exposure, so the price is fully supported from the NO side with no counterweight to defend a snap-election bet. Every cent of tracked P&L reflects a winning fade of the early-election thesis.
Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $164K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $164K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |