Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Soccer Edition: WLRN and the NPR network's coverage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

What’s Happening

Uruguay’s path to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become significantly more difficult after the team managed only two draws in its first two Group H matches. The two-time World Cup winner opened with a 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia on June 15, a result that many analysts viewed as a missed opportunity given Uruguay’s historical edge in such matchups. That was followed by a 2-2 draw against tournament debutant Cape Verde on June 21 in Miami, a result that USA Today called a “stunning” outcome for the African side. With just two points from two matches, Uruguay now sits third in the group behind Cape Verde (2 points, superior goal difference) and Spain (4 points), with only the top two teams advancing to the Round of 32. The expanded 48-team format means the top two from each group advance, but Uruguay’s record of 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses leaves them needing a result against Spain in the final group match to have any realistic chance of advancing. [AP News, Jun 22] [USA Today, Jun 22]

The absence of legendary striker Luis Suárez, who watched both matches from the stands, has been a glaring factor in Uruguay’s offensive struggles. Suárez, now 39 years old, was not included in the squad for this tournament, leaving a void in the attack that younger players have failed to fill. Against Cape Verde, Uruguay managed only 4 shots on target despite controlling 58% possession, a statistic that underscores their lack of finishing precision. The team’s odds of advancing have plummeted accordingly, with the current probability of Uruguay advancing to the knockout stages sitting at just 36%, according to market data. This marks a sharp decline from pre-tournament expectations, when Uruguay was widely projected to finish second in the group behind Spain. The defensive unit, once a hallmark of Uruguayan football, has also been uncharacteristically porous, conceding goals to both Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde—teams ranked significantly lower in the FIFA World Rankings. [Sporting News, Jun 21] [Telecom Asia Sport, Jun 20]

Uruguay’s final group stage match against Spain on June 25 is now a must-win scenario, and even a victory may not be enough if Cape Verde beats Saudi Arabia in the other Group H fixture. Spain, a tournament favorite, has already secured 4 points from a win over Saudi Arabia and a draw with Cape Verde, and will likely field a strong lineup to secure top spot in the group. Historically, Uruguay has struggled against top-tier European opposition in World Cup play, with a record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses against UEFA teams since 2010. The expanded 48-team format, which WLRN noted was initially criticized for potentially diluting competition quality, has instead created a scenario where lower-ranked teams like Cape Verde are thriving, leaving traditional powers like Uruguay on the brink of elimination. If Uruguay fails to advance, it would mark the second consecutive World Cup where the team exited in the group stage—a first since the 2002 tournament. [WLRN, Jun 22] [Traded on Polymarket — $60K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($60K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 36c YES.