Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Venezuela become 51st state. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Donald Trump Wants Venezuela to Be 51st State—Is It Possible? President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is weighing making Venezuela the 51st U.S.

What’s Happening

On Monday, May 11, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News he is "seriously considering" making Venezuela the 51st U.S. state, citing the country's estimated $40 trillion in oil reserves and asserting that "Venezuela loves Trump." The remarks came months after a U.S. intervention removed President Nicolas Maduro from power, with Venezuelan oil exports recently reaching a seven-year high of 1.23 million barrels per day. Fox News correspondent Steve Harrigan, reporting from Caracas, described renewed commercial ties as U.S. officials court oil-company investment in the South American country. [Fox News, May 11]

Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez rejected the proposal the same day, telling journalists at the International Court of Justice in The Hague that her country "had no plans" to become the 51st U.S. state and declaring Venezuela a free nation defending its sovereignty. Rodríguez was speaking on the final day of ICJ hearings in Venezuela's century-old territorial dispute with neighboring Guyana over the oil-rich Essequibo region. Analysts note that the proposition that Venezuela become 51st state faces formidable constitutional barriers: under Article IV of the U.S. Constitution, statehood requires acts of both Congress and the prospective state's own legislature, a process the U.S. has not completed since Hawaii in 1959. [Los Angeles Times, May 11]

Hawks within the Trump administration frame potential annexation as a hedge against Chinese and Russian influence in the Western Hemisphere and a guarantee of energy supply, while regional analysts caution that any forcible move would trigger censure from the Organization of American States and likely fracture U.S. diplomatic relations across Latin America. The structural factor determining whether Venezuela become 51st state will be the legitimacy of any post-Maduro transitional government in Caracas — without a freely elected Venezuelan legislature voting to petition for admission, the legal path remains blocked regardless of White House preference. Subsequent statements from Rodríguez's interim cabinet and the U.S. Congress will signal whether Trump's remarks reflect operational planning or rhetorical framing ahead of further oil-sector negotiations. [AP via Greenwich Time, May 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $156K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 5c YES with $156K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.