Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?

As of November 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?” at 8% YES with $58K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). The possibility of further supply disruptions has also reinforced expectations of higher crude prices.

What’s Happening

The market asking whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit (high) $120 in November is pricing at 8% YES against 92% NO, with the contract already settled. Related Polymarket contracts on whether WTI would hit $95, $90 and $100 in November all resolved Yes, while a separate November contract on a $85 print moved from 27% to 76% over the past seven days. Crude traded near $94.40 a barrel on Wednesday, well below the $120 threshold, after falling to $111 on November 2 as Iran-Qatar talks continued. [Polymarket, Nov 4]

The $120 level has anchored analyst scenarios since the US-Iran war began, with WTI consolidating between $69 and $120 on the weekly chart. Goldman Sachs estimates crude could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate, while prices could fall toward $80 if exports normalize; Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said recent attacks showed how shipping disruptions could spread. Evercore warned that a prolonged move above $120/bbl for a month or more, or a spike to the all-time high of $147/bbl, could trigger an economic slowdown and deeper market downturn. [The Economic Times, Nov 2]

Prices plunged 8% on November 2 as US-Iran peace talks eased Strait of Hormuz tensions, with relief for importers dependent on whether the drop lasts. Markets remain focused on Iran-Qatar mediation, any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Nov. 3 US midterms, with analysts warning Brent could reach $120 if tensions reignite after the election. For the WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (high) $120 in November contract, the question is settled: the threshold was not reached before expiry, and the 8% YES reading reflects a residual mark rather than live probability. [Gulfnews, Nov 2]

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume