Will XRP reach $1.80 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will XRP reach $1.80 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). The Senate is expected to vote on the CLARITY Act the week of July 20, and it has until August 7 to pass it.

What’s Happening

XRP entered August trading at $1.06, roughly 70% below the $1.80 threshold this market tracks, leaving little on-chain runway for XRP to reach $1.80 in August. Historical seasonality compounds the challenge: August is the flattest month in XRP's record, averaging a 0.43% return, and the token has closed the month lower four years in a row. Weekly momentum has deteriorated to levels last seen at the 2022 bottom near $0.29, while exchange supply sits at a seven-year low, a divergence typically read as reduced immediate sell pressure but also thin directional conviction. With both the CLARITY Act vote and the Fed rate decision pushed into September, analysts flagged August as largely catalyst-free, forecasting a range confined to the low-$1 zone. [Aol, Aug 01]

The regulatory timeline is central to any thesis that XRP could reach $1.80 in August. The Senate was expected to vote on the CLARITY Act the week of July 20, with a deadline of August 7 to pass it, but traders priced the odds of the bill becoming law this year at about 35% — its lowest of 2026 — with sentiment falling after Trump publicly pushed for it. The legislation would convert XRP's commodity classification from a reversible agency ruling into federal law that no single agency could unwind, a structural catalyst for valuation. Its slippage into September removed the most plausible near-term driver from the August window. [24/7 Wall St., Jul 17]

Longer-range context underscores the depth of the drawdown. In early February XRP traded at $1.56, already a 57% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, after enduring two crashes in four months including an October 2025 flash crash. A rebound toward the $1.80–$2.00 zone was earlier framed as contingent on XRP first defending $1.65–$1.70 support — a level it has since lost, trading below $1.10 entering the month. With key catalysts deferred and momentum near multi-year lows, resistance at $1.80 would require a move of more than 65% within weeks. [Forbes, Feb 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $60K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($60K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.