Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?” at 5% YES with $104K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto platform NoOnes, is bullish.

What’s Happening

XRP traded near $1.31 on October 19, 2026, according to CoinGecko data, down roughly 29% year-to-date and about 64% below its July 2025 record of $3.65. The decline has kept the token well short of the $2.60 threshold central to the "xrp reach $2.60" contract, with Blockchainreporter's base case placing XRP at $1.20 to $1.55 by year-end 2026. Prediction market pricing reflected that gap, with Polymarket assigning a 12% chance to XRP reaching $2.60 and a 6.65% chance of touching $3 as of October 19, while Kalshi priced a 21% probability of XRP trading above $2 before December 31. [Blockchainreporter, Oct 19]

Momentum deteriorated further into the third quarter. By August 31, 2026, Polymarket traders assigned a 56% probability that XRP would trade below $1, with only a 1% chance priced for levels above $2, including the $2.60 target, according to Finbold. The repricing followed a year in which earlier bullish forecasts failed to materialize: Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto platform NoOnes, had projected roughly $2.60 by end-December 2025 on continued ETF demand, while Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick maintained an $8 target for end-2026. Spot XRP ETFs launched and the SEC case concluded, but neither catalyst sustained prices near the $2.50-$4.00 range some analysts had outlined. [Finbold, Aug 03]

The remaining path to $2.60 by December 31, 2026 requires a gain of roughly 98% from October levels, a move with limited precedent absent a broad market catalyst. Technical analysts had flagged a cup-and-handle formation in early 2026, but the pattern failed to confirm as price broke below support near $1.40. With 13 AI models averaging 2026 estimates around $1.92 and upper-bound scenarios only modestly above $2, the "xrp reach $2.60" outcome now depends on a late-year rally that current spot, derivatives, and prediction market data do not price in. Traders will watch ETF flow data and whale accumulation metrics for any shift in positioning ahead of year-end. [24/7 Wall St., Dec 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $104K Volume