Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Putin War in Ukraine Russia.

What’s Happening

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on May 10, 2026, following Moscow's annual Victory Day parade, that the war in Ukraine is "coming to an end" and signaled openness to meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Moscow or a third country, the latter only to sign a final peace agreement. The remarks marked the first time Putin publicly endorsed a venue outside Russia for a bilateral meeting, conditioning any third-country summit on the prior conclusion of a long-term peace deal. The statement followed a three-day temporary ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on May 8, running through May 11 and tied to a proposed exchange of 1,000 prisoners from each side. [Al Jazeera, May 10]

The framing of where Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US versus a neutral European capital has become a central diplomatic friction point. Putin's conditions explicitly exclude the United States as a working venue, naming Moscow as the preferred site and reserving any third-country meeting for signature ceremonies only. Ukrainian officials have publicly framed the proposed ceasefire more cautiously than the White House, characterizing it as part of broader prisoner-exchange negotiations rather than a precursor to a leaders' summit. Analysts note that prior Trump-brokered initiatives have favored Gulf state and European venues — Riyadh, Istanbul, and Geneva have all surfaced in shuttle diplomacy — making a scenario where Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US a structural outlier absent a fundamental Russian policy shift. [Kyiv Post, May 10]

Resolution before January 1, 2027 depends on three sequential conditions: a durable ceasefire extending beyond the May 11 window, agreement on a final peace framework Putin has tied to any out-of-Russia meeting, and U.S. selection as the host venue over competing European and Gulf candidates. Putin's May 10 statement reiterated openness to "fresh European security arrangements," language read by Western diplomats as signaling preference for a European host. With under eight months remaining in the resolution window and no announced Washington-track summit, the structural path to a Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US scenario remains narrow. [The Hill, May 10]

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