As of October 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?” at 14% YES with $592K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: will republicans win iowa, and lose alaska, kansas, maine, michigan, ohio, and texas?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 14c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 91c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 86c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (71–98c vs 86c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 86c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The lone tracked wallet is positioned on NO at 87c, signaling conviction that Republicans will not simultaneously win Iowa while losing Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. With no YES entries recorded, there is no smart-money counterweight, so the single NO entry reinforces the bearish YES direction. This positioning suggests the market's dominant view is that the specified state-by-state split is highly improbable.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc408..75 | Smart | NO | $7.7K | -1% |
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 87c, and with YES trading at 14c both sides sit at a loss (0% in profit), indicating the position was opened at a price that has since moved against it or remains near entry. The dominant NO side at 87c implies the market heavily prices the multi-state Republican split as unlikely, leaving little upside for NO holders and thin support for YES. Price support for YES is weak, with the 14c level reflecting a low-probability tail scenario rather than active accumulation.
Significant 28-cent gap: Polymarket at 14c vs Kalshi at 42c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 12c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $592K |
| Kalshi | 42c | — |
| Our Model | 12c | — |