As of October 29, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?” at 39% YES with $59K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 39% probability to: will the democratic party win the nc-03 house seat?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 3/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 53c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 42c | 30% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 58c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (53–85c vs 61c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 71c — market prices it at 61c. 10-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 38c, signaling a modest bullish lean on the Democratic NC-03 outcome. With no NO entries from this wallet, the positioning reads as one-directional conviction rather than a hedge. However, the sample is just one wallet, so the signal is weak and should be treated as anecdotal rather than smart-money confirmation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $9.3K | +2% |
All YES positions are in profit, with entries clustered at 38c against a current 39c mark, giving holders a thin but positive edge. No NO-side entries are tracked, so there is no losing cohort to create overhead supply or pressure the price down. The absence of underwater holders suggests limited forced selling and mild support for YES at current levels.
Polymarket prices YES at 39c with $59K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 29c. Significant 10-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 39c | $59K |
| Our Model | 29c | — |