As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?” at 82% YES with $427K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 82% probability to: another fed rate hike in 2026?.
On this market: 4/6 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
4 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (82–98c vs 18c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 18c. 70-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Disagrees: Claude Analysis dissents at 80c — Market prior is 82% YES on $427K volume, reflecting genuine macro consensus for another 2026 Fed hike. The Layer-1 PIN model's 2% fair va...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on NO at 11c, a contrarian bet against the market's 82% implied probability of another 2026 hike. This concentrated NO entry signals conviction that rate-hike odds are overpriced, though the thin one-wallet sample limits the signal's reliability.
With YES at 82c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions are in profit, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend the 11c entry. The absence of profitable YES wallets suggests no fresh buying pressure at these levels, leaving the 82c price vulnerable to NO-side selling.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 82c YES — $427K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 82c with $427K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. Significant 70-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
What are the current odds for Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 82% YES with $427K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 12c YES. 4 models agree on direction.
ODDSSHIFT PRO
$29/mo
Cancel anytime. No lock-in.
✔ Every AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD with entry price and target, on every Radar market
✔ Model fair value — 3 math models + up to 5 AI models behind each verdict
✔ Wallet-level positions — which tracked wallets hold the market, size, P&L
✔ Trade alerts — Telegram or email within a minute of a tracked wallet's trade
✔ Wallet follow + daily digest — the wallets you follow, email + Telegram
✔ Cancel anytime — access runs to the end of the billing period