As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?” at 56% YES with $86K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO). TSLA price target Polymarket Odds Now Tilt Toward a Merger by 2027 Polymarket turns that trade into clear odds.
The probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027 stood at 56% on Thursday, according to the latest contract pricing, up from 45% a week earlier as traders reassessed the timeline for a combination of Elon Musk's two flagship companies. The move followed Musk's comments on Oct. 29, 2026, when he called a Tesla-SpaceX merger "a good idea" but noted it would require roughly 1.98 billion "yes" votes, calling it "quite a high hurdle." Tesla shares closed at $402.60 that morning, down 10.48% year-to-date, while separate contracts priced a 19% chance of an announcement by Dec. 31, 2026 and 70% by Dec. 31, 2027. [24/7 Wall St., Oct 29]
The Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027 contract has drawn $1.66 million in volume, $78,770 in liquidity and $173,880 in open interest, with the December 2027 rung at 66.5% and the February 2027 rung at 35.5%. Earlier contracts with June 30 and September 30, 2026 deadlines both resolved No, and the June 2027 price has swung between 30.5 cents and 58 cents across venues since September, a dispersion that underscores how thin liquidity can amplify headline-driven moves. No merger has been announced, and any transaction would require shareholder approvals and regulatory review. [CryptoSlate, Oct 31]
What happens next hinges on Tesla's shareholder base and the 1.98 billion votes Musk cited, alongside any formal Form 10 or proxy filing that would signal a transaction is moving toward a vote. The June 2027 contract's 9-point single-week gain on Oct. 16-17 shows how quickly sentiment can reprice around Musk's public remarks, and the gap between the June 2027 and December 2027 rungs implies traders see a roughly 10-point probability of announcement in the second half of 2027. With Tesla down double digits this year, the equity's performance remains the key indicator to watch alongside any official filing. [Rg, Oct 17]
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