Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Anthropic IPO before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO). OpenAI's revenue picture is reportedly not pretty, and a new report says its chief financial officer wants to calm spending down before going public.

What’s Happening

Anthropic is reportedly closing a funding round of approximately $50 billion at a target valuation of $900 billion, with the round expected to wrap within two weeks of the late-April report. Sources indicate investor demand is heavy enough that the final valuation could exceed the headline figure, positioning this as likely the company's last private fundraise before any public listing. CEO Dario Amodei disclosed at a developer conference on May 6, 2026 that Anthropic recorded 80x year-over-year growth in revenue and usage during Q1 2026, against an internal plan of 10x. [Zamin, Apr 30]

An Anthropic IPO trajectory has been reinforced by a strategic compute deal announced May 6, 2026, under which SpaceX will lease the entire capacity of its Colossus 1 data center to Anthropic. The arrangement gives SpaceX a marquee AI customer ahead of its own expected IPO and addresses Anthropic's capacity constraints driven by surging demand for Claude Code. By contrast, OpenAI's CFO has reportedly suggested internally that the company delay its planned 2026 IPO to 2027, citing scrutiny of spending commitments. PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes wrote on May 5 that OpenAI is unlikely to join SpaceX and Anthropic on public markets for at least another 12 months. [NY Post, May 6]

The anthropic ipo calendar will hinge on three near-term variables: closure of the $900 billion private round in mid-May 2026, sustained revenue trajectory off the reported 80x Q1 base, and resolution of compute supply via the SpaceX Colossus 1 lease. Rolfes' note, titled "OpenAI: The IPO That Cannot Afford," frames the public-market environment as one where late-mover AI labs risk being valued against frameworks set by earlier listers — a dynamic that historically pressures issuers to either accelerate filings or accept compressed multiples. SpaceX is expected to list next month per the Axios report of May 7, 2026, which would establish the comparable framework against which any anthropic ipo would be priced. [Axios, May 7]

Traded on Polymarket — $244K Volume

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