As of October 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Anthropic IPO before 2027?” at 84% YES with $630K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 84% probability to: anthropic ipo before 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 84c — models see 72c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 76c | 52% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 78c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
4 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (78–98c vs 16c). Grok Contrarian leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 16c. 72-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet holds only NO entries at 17c, signaling a contrarian bet against an Anthropic IPO before 2027. This positioning implies the wallet expects a delay or cancellation of the IPO, but with no YES entries to compare, it is unclear whether this reflects smart money or a lone speculative view. The dominant NO side at 17c suggests the market assigns a low probability to that outcome, making the wallet's bet high-risk, high-reward.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.0K | -3% |
With YES at 84c and NO entries at 17c, neither side is currently in profit, indicating the market has moved against NO holders while YES buyers at higher levels are also underwater. The lack of profitable positions on either side suggests thin conviction and potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges. Price support at 84c remains untested by profitable YES holders, leaving downside risk if sentiment shifts.
Polymarket prices YES at 84c with $630K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. Significant 72-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84c | $630K |
| Our Model | 12c | — |