Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?” at 14% YES with $79K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Banxico is widely expected to hold rates steady through late 2026, making a 25 bps cut after the November meeting unlikely given persistent inflation concerns.

What’s Happening

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, has held its benchmark rate steady through the second half of 2026 as inflation pressures persist, with core inflation running above the bank's 3% target. The Federal Reserve's September 2026 decision to raise rates by a quarter point to 3.75–4.0% has complicated the outlook for emerging-market central banks, as a stronger dollar and higher U.S. yields typically constrain easing cycles in economies like Mexico's. The question of whether the Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after its November 2026 meeting has drawn attention given this external backdrop. [J.P. Morgan Global Research, Sep 25]

Regional peers have moved in different directions. South Korea's central bank unexpectedly cut its lending benchmark by 25 basis points in November 2024, citing currency weakness as a key consideration, while the Reserve Bank of India was expected to cut to 5.25% on December 5, 2025, according to a Reuters poll. The Philippine central bank was set for a final 25-bps cut to 4.25% on February 19, 2026. These moves illustrate the divergence in monetary policy across emerging markets, with some central banks prioritizing growth support even as currency pressures linger. [CNBC, Nov 28]

Rising oil prices are adding to inflation worries that may prompt global central banks to raise interest rates further, according to RBC, complicating the case for easing in Mexico. The Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the November meeting only if inflation data and peso stability allow, and the Fed's hawkish stance raises the bar for such a move. Market participants will watch Mexico's CPI prints and Banxico's policy statement for signals on whether a cut is likely, with the balance of risks tilted toward a hold given the external environment. [RBC, Oct 3]

Traded on Polymarket — $79K Volume