Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?” at 74% YES with $52K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Carles Puigdemont remains in Belgium after the EU Parliament lifted his immunity, making a 2026 return to Spain unlikely despite 74% market odds.

What’s Happening

Spain's Supreme Court lifted the national arrest warrant against Carles Puigdemont on October 6, 2026, clearing the way for the exiled Catalan separatist leader to return home after nearly nine years in Belgium. The ruling followed a Constitutional Court decision that the amnesty law for Catalan separatists applies to embezzlement charges against Puigdemont. The court action removed the principal legal barrier that had kept the former Catalan president in self-imposed exile since the failed 2017 independence bid. [Politico, Oct 06]

The legal developments accelerated through 2026. In July, the EU's top court ruled that the controversial amnesty of Catalan separatists does not violate key provisions of bloc law, bringing Puigdemont a step closer to return. In October, the European Parliament lifted the immunity of three Catalans, including Puigdemont, while the BBC reported on October 19 that the Supreme Court upheld its decision allowing him to return without fear of arrest. The question of whether Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026 remains open, hinging on his own timing and any residual legal challenges. [BBC News, Oct 19]

The warrant's removal marks a political win for both Puigdemont and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who had secured Junts' support to form a government by agreeing to the amnesty framework. Puigdemont has previously said he would return to Catalonia, and the lifted warrant removes the threat of immediate detention on the referendum-related charges. Attention now turns to whether he follows through with a physical return before year-end, a move that would test the amnesty's application and reshape Catalan politics. [Euronews, Oct 06]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume