Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). That’s because the valuation of just three startups, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, have exploded over the last year.

What’s Happening

OpenAI's private-market valuation has already crossed the threshold this market tracks. According to a May 14, 2026 Forbes analysis citing secondary-market activity, OpenAI is currently valued at $852 billion, with rival Anthropic at $380 billion and reportedly in talks to match OpenAI's mark in a new fundraise. The same report noted SpaceX is now tipped to go public at a valuation above $1.5 trillion following its February merger with xAI, which valued the combined business at $1.25 trillion. Together, the three startups represent a concentration of late-stage AI and space-tech capital that has reshaped the venture landscape over the past twelve months. [Forbes, May 14]

The question of whether openai's valuation hit (low) $800b by december 31 gained fresh urgency this week as the company moved toward public markets. On May 20, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is working with bankers at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO filing within days or weeks. Reuters separately reported the filing could come as soon as Friday, May 22, two days after OpenAI fended off an existential court challenge from Elon Musk. The accelerated timeline followed months of speculation about which AI laboratory would reach public markets first. [WSJ, May 20]

CNBC reported on May 20 that traders shifted their expectations after the IPO news, now favoring OpenAI over Anthropic to reach public markets first — a reversal from prior positioning. A public offering would crystallize whether openai's valuation hit (low) $800b by december 31 holds at the IPO price, since underwriters typically anchor pricing to the most recent private round. The $852 billion secondary mark already sits comfortably above the $800B threshold, and Anthropic's reported fundraise to match that figure suggests continued upward pressure on AI-sector comparables through the second half of 2026. Remaining variables include final IPO pricing, post-filing market reception, and any regulatory review of OpenAI's restructured for-profit entity. [CNBC, May 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $57K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($57K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 50c YES.