Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 60%: Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June. Currently, markets are divided (60% YES, 40% NO). World shares were mixed and U.S.

What’s Happening

On May 1, 2026, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded near $111 per barrel as global markets paused for May Day holidays, with the price reflecting ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel from $85, citing a widening market deficit of approximately 6.6 million barrels per day due to the prolonged supply shock. This backdrop set the stage for the prediction market on whether crude oil (CL) will settle at >$84 in June, which currently shows a 60% probability of a YES outcome, implying traders see a strong likelihood that prices remain elevated above that threshold through the end of the month. [San Francisco Chronicle, May 01] [Kitco, May 01]

By May 6, 2026, the market experienced a sharp reversal as WTI crude plunged over 12% to $89.83 per barrel after former President Trump announced a pause on the Hormuz escort plan, easing fears of a direct military escalation in the critical waterway. The average U.S. gasoline price topped $4.50 per gallon, nearing a four-year high, even as crude prices fell below the $100 mark for the first time in weeks. This volatility directly impacts the June settlement outlook for crude oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June, as the sudden price drop from above $111 to below $90 within five days introduces significant uncertainty about whether prices can recover to the $84 threshold by the contract's expiration. [OilPrice.com, May 06] [OilPrice.com, May 06]

Looking ahead, the key variable remains the trajectory of the Hormuz conflict and its impact on global supply chains. Kalshi traders on May 1 estimated a 63% chance that WTI would cross $120 per barrel this year, with some predicting prices above $125, though the ceasefire talks and the escort plan pause have since tempered those expectations. The 60% probability that crude oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June reflects a market still pricing in a bullish bias despite the recent correction, as the underlying supply deficit of 6.6 million barrels per day identified by Barclays suggests any renewed geopolitical tension could quickly push prices back above the $84 level. The outcome will depend on whether the current diplomatic efforts hold or if the conflict reignites, with the June contract serving as a key barometer for near-term oil price direction. [CNBC, May 01] [Kitco, May 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $87K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($87K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 56c YES.