Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO). Brent Crude Jun 2026 110.61  ( 0.84 ).

What’s Happening

Oil markets are experiencing significant volatility in early April 2026, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East serving as the primary catalyst. The key event is a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, initiated by the Trump administration. This action has propelled prices sharply higher, with U.S. Crude Oil (May 2026) reaching $115.38 on April 7, according to market data. The immediate concern for traders is whether this elevated price environment will be sustained, directly influencing the question of whether crude oil (CL) will settle at >$84 in June. [WSJ, Apr 13]

Despite the sharp price spike, there are countervailing forces that introduced volatility later in the week. While reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal pushed prices higher, markets also reacted to the potential for a ceasefire and the first ships transiting the Hormuz Strait, which caused prices to slump. This resulted in a notable intraday pullback, with oil settling below session highs on April 13 after the initial surge. Analysts at Standard Chartered have noted that the recent price correction may be overdone, suggesting underlying market fundamentals remain tight. The interplay between military escalation and diplomatic developments is creating a highly uncertain path for the crude oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June outcome. [OilPrice.com, Apr 10]

Looking ahead, the market's focus remains fixed on the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for further supply disruptions. The U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway has passed, and the situation remains fluid, with President Trump threatening to "decimate" civilian infrastructure. Some institutional analysts, including those at Société Générale, have outlined scenarios where prices could spike dramatically higher, even topping $200 a barrel, if the conflict severely constrains global supply. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether current price strength holds or if a geopolitical de-escalation allows prices to retreat, ultimately deciding the June settlement price. [MarketWatch, Apr 07]

Traded on Polymarket — $62K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 56c YES.